Overview
Toronto’s annual growth rate has been increasing steadily over the last several years. What is much less evident, however, are the changes in demographic patterns which, when combined with Toronto's overly prescriptive yet ambiguous policies, are fueling this high-rise development. Demographic patterns are changing, and the average household size is shrinking. Every year, more housing is required to house fewer people. Couples are getting married later in life and having fewer children. Conversely, seniors are living longer, healthier lives, and are remaining independent for longer periods of time. These factors have the collective impact of delaying and reducing population growth and diminishing the size of households. Regardless of whether a couple decides to have 1, 2 or more children, the changes in lifestyle that come with this lifecycle stage, and the shifting of values, creates demand for ground-related housing in areas of Toronto which are outside the downtown and major centres. For many of these couples, the decision of housing choice comes even years prior to parenthood.
Growing PopulationBetween 2006 and 2011, Toronto grew by an average 30,000 people per year. This increased to 33,000 people per year between 2011 and 2016 - a modest increase over the rate of the City’s population growth between 1996 and 2006. However, if we consider the last 20-year period in its entirety and examine Toronto's population growth on a percentage basis, the story begins to look different. Between 1996 and 2016, Toronto’s population grew by approximately 15 percent, which averages approximately 0.75 percent per year. By all accounts, we can consider this a relatively low and stable rate of growth. Putting this within the broader context of the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA), it is also interesting to note that, of all 31 lower-tier and single-tier municipalities, Toronto has the second lowest percentage-based rate of population growth in the region during this 20-year period. So, while Toronto is growing, the rate at which it is growing does not entirely explain its rapidly increasing demand for ground-related housing.
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Shrinking HouseholdsOver this same 20-year period, the number of units in Toronto has increased by over 23 percent, which averages approximately 1.15 percent per year. This means that the city is building housing at a rate of 1.5 times that of its population growth. The discrepancy between these two metrics is not universally applied over the past 20-year period. The gap is increasing on an annual basis, with a notable increase over the past 5-year period. The average size of Toronto’s households is also decreasing. In 1996, the average Toronto household contained approximately 2.65 people. In 2016, that number decreased to approximately 2.45. Each year, the number of people per household decreases, and the city requires an increasing number of units to house the same number of people. Looking back over the past 20-year period, the city required a significantly greater number of units to house the same population in 2016, compared to 1996.
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Diminishing Capacity
These trends are generally consistent across Canada. However, by constraining the supply of ground-related housing in Toronto and directing development to a relatively small area which encompasses the downtown, major centres and avenues, the city is effectively “doubling down” on the issues and challenges associated with it. The result is increased strain on the carrying capacity of existing infrastructure and services in these already intensifying areas of the city, while Toronto's neighbourhoods remain relatively under-populated and over-housed. Even more worrisome is the fact that, as growth is happening, many of the city's neighbourhoods are actually losing population.
Declining Neighbourhoods and Strained Amenities
The static and inflexible nature of the city's neighbourhoods is leading to the decline of their populations and is making Toronto's communities less vibrant and resilient. Demographic patterns are changing, and Toronto's municipal land use policy framework is failing to keep pace. Over the past 20-years alone, the total population of Toronto's neighbourhoods has declined by approximately 200,000 while, over the same timeframe, the total population of the city has increased by approximately 500,000. Within Toronto's neighbourhoods, this is resulting in the closure of schools and childcare facilities, the decline of main street retail, and an increased per-person tax burden pertaining to the maintenance of parks, roads, sewers, watermains, and waste removal services.
Increasing Housing Mismatch
This has the impact of preventing young couples and families from entering the housing market, and preventing empty nesters and seniors from finding smaller, more accessible forms of housing within their neighbourhoods. While young couples, families and empty nesters may not necessarily require a detached single-family dwelling, they may aspire to have a few bedrooms, some outdoor space, a bit of privacy, and some peace and quiet. In the case of empty nesters, they may also aspire to having a fully accessible unit. Collectively, duplexes, triplexes, fourplexes, rowhouses, townhouses and walk-up apartment buildings can fulfill the full range of these needs. However, the problem is these forms of ground-related housing comprise a relatively small percentage of the overall housing mix, and Toronto is simply not building them.
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Increasing Housing CostsUltimately, this is driving up the cost of ground-related housing at unprecedented and unsustainable rates, while increasing the gap between those forms of housing which are being supplied, and those which are in demand. The process also exacerbates related issues pertaining to wealth polarization, socio-economic segregation, and the decline of the middle class.
So, we understand that there is a mismatch between the types of housing which are being supplied, and those which are demanded. We also understand that this is largely driven by the City's municipal land use policy framework, and is being compounded by changing demographic patterns. What impact is this having on the socio-economic health of the city? Please click Social and Economic to learn more. |